FED STAYS THE COURSE

Mortgage rates moved lower ahead of Wednesday's Fed meeting, but they rose following the Fed announcement and ended the week a little higher. Demand for the $101 billion in this week's Treasury auctions was average, and foreign investors purchased a healthy 29% to 33% of each auction. The stock market ended the week with little change. Nearly all of the movement in mortgage rates during the week was related to the Fed meeting.

In anticipation of the announcement of favorable new Fed actions, mortgage rates moved lower early in the week. Some investors were looking for the Fed to expand its purchases of Treasury securities, which would be positive for mortgage rates. Those investors were disappointed, however, as the Fed announced no new initiatives. The Fed made no change in rates, holding the fed funds rate close to zero. According to the Fed, the economic outlook has "improved modestly" since the March 18 meeting. A lack of new Fed programs and confirmation of improved economic prospects pushed mortgage rates higher.

Overshadowed by the Fed meeting, an important report on first quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) presented data which supports the Fed's economic outlook. GDP fell -6.1%, which was significantly weaker than the consensus forecast. However, a breakdown of the GDP report reveals that the weak headline number for the first quarter may not be reflective of the current condition of the economy. GDP fell more than expected mainly due to declines in inventories and business investment. Consumer spending actually far exceeded expectations. If this trend continues, then businesses will have to begin to rebuild depleted inventories, lifting future economic activity.

Week Ahead

The important Employment report will come out on Friday. As usual, this data on the number of jobs, the Unemployment Rate, and wage inflation will be the most highly anticipated economic data of the month. Early estimates are for a loss of about 620K jobs in April. Before the Employment Data, Pending Home Sales and Construction Spending will come out on Monday. Pending Home Sales is a leading indicator for the housing market. The ISM Services index will be released on Tuesday, while Productivity is scheduled for Thursday. There will be large Treasury auctions on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. The results of the government's stress tests for 19 large financial institutions will be released on Thursday.

Also Notable:

*The stock market posted its best percentage gain for April since 1938
*The mortgage cramdown bill did not pass in the Senate
*The Fed purchased $23 billion in agency MBS during the week ending 4/29

Mortgage Rates Hold

The Fed announcement last week about an expansion of the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) purchase program pushed mortgage rates down to the lowest levels in decades, according to the weekly surveys from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) and Freddie Mac. This week, mortgage rates held the improvement, ending nearly unchanged from last Friday.
The Treasury unveiled a major new program on Monday which will establish public/private partnerships to purchase up to $1 trillion in troubled assets from banks. The program was well received by investors, and the news produced a large rally in the stock market. Significant to the mortgage market, removing these assets from banks' balance sheets should free up room for additional investments in mortgage loans.
This week's news in the housing sector was positive for a change. February Existing Home Sales rose 5% from January. Inventories of unsold homes were at a 9.7-month supply, about the same as last month. February New Home Sales also rose 5%. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) revised higher its forecast for loan originations in 2009. The MBA now expects $2.8 trillion in mortgage originations this year, up from about $2.0 trillion in its prior forecast. The increase was due to a projected rise in activity as a result of lower mortgage rates.

Mortgage Rates Tumble

Well, all the fed has to say is that they are going to buy 1 TRILLION dollars worth of Mortgage Backed Securities and Treasury Bonds, and look what happens. Mortgage rates drop by a 1/2 percent! How much is 1 trillion Dollars? Stacked flat 1 trillion dollars would reach 66 MILES up! Hard to imagine.Whatever the technicalities are, mortgage rates are the lowest I've ever seen. We're talking mid 4's for a 30 Year Fixed. Combine that with the $8,000 tax credit and we have "The Perfect Storm" for purchasing real estate right now. It's also not so bad if you are looking to refinance either. Don't let this opportunity slip away!